Government contractors are losing “sure thing” recompete contracts because they mistake contract tenure for customer loyalty, while competitors win by actively listening to and engaging with the customers that incumbents have stopped paying attention to.

Picture this: You’ve been on contract for seven years. Your CPARs are stellar. Your team knows the mission inside and out.

The recompete RFP drops, and you’re already mentally spending the next five years’ revenue. Then comes the heads-up call that makes your stomach drop: “We’ve decided to go in a different direction.”

Wait, what?

Welcome to incumbentitis—the silent disease that’s killing recompete win rates across the government contracting (GovCon) sector.

The Lie We Tell Ourselves

Here’s the story we love to tell: tenure equals trust. A long performance record equals long-term security. We’ve got this locked up because, well, look at our track record!

But here’s the uncomfortable truth that your competitors already know. Your government customer doesn’t care about your seven-year love affair with their contract. They care about whether you’re still paying attention to them today.

And if you’re being honest? You probably stopped really listening in year 2 or 3 of the contract.

How Familiarity Becomes Your Worst Enemy

Do you remember when you first won this contract? You hung on every word in customer meetings. You asked follow-up questions. You noticed when someone seemed frustrated and actually did something about it.

Now? Your program manager attends the monthly review, runs through the standard slides, and checks the box. The customer asks how things are going, and you say “great” without actually knowing if that’s true.

This is incumbentitis in action—the gradual shift from proactive engagement to reactive maintenance. Meanwhile, your competitors are having the conversations you once had. They’re asking about the frustrations you’ve stopped noticing. They’re positioning themselves as the team that actually gives a damn.

Guess who’s going to win the recompete?

The Signals You’re Missing (That Your Customer Is Sending)

Government customers rarely tell you how they really feel. They’re way more passive-aggressive than that. Instead, they send signals:

• Meetings get shorter and more transactional
• They stop asking for your input on strategy
• Response times to your emails get longer
• New initiatives mysteriously don’t include your team
• That warm relationship with the contracting officer suddenly feels… cooler

You know what you tell yourself when you notice these things? “They’re just busy.” Or “budget constraints.” Or “politics.”

Your competitors know better. They see these signals as opportunities to swoop in and become the attentive partner you used to be.

The Math That Should Terrify You

Here’s a stat that should terrify you: incumbent contractor win rates dropped from 75% to 54% in just one year, according to Grant Thornton’s 2016 Government Contractor Survey. Meanwhile, companies prioritizing customer relationships achieve 63% higher win rates, according to the Professional Services Council.

Let that sink in. Nearly half of “sure thing” contracts were lost, not because of poor performance, but because your team stopped connecting.

What Your Competitors Know (That You Don’t)

A Washington Technology analysis revealed a sobering truth: “75% of contractors never invest in the people skills that determine recompete outcomes. This critical gap leaves your technically excellent team vulnerable to competitors with superior people skills.”

Remember: While your team focuses on requirements, the “winner” focuses on understanding the customer’s evolving needs. Innovative competitors don’t try to outperform you technically. That’s expensive and hard. Instead, they out-relationship you. Here’s their playbook:

1. They find the gaps you’ve stopped seeing. Every long-term contract has them—the customer who feels ignored, the process that has become inefficient, the small frustration that has grown into a big resentment.
2. They position themselves as listeners. While you’re discussing your past performance, they’re inquiring about future challenges.
3. They make it emotional. They don’t just understand the requirement—they know why the mission matters to the people doing it.
4. They make the customer feel heard. Revolutionary concept, right?

The Hard Truth About Trust

Here’s what seven years on contract actually proves: that you could deliver what was needed seven years ago.

It doesn’t prove you understand their current needs. It doesn’t prove you’re still hungry. And it definitely doesn’t prove you’re still the best choice going forward.

Trust isn’t a bank account where past deposits guarantee future withdrawals. It’s a relationship that needs constant renewal.

What Winning Looks Like Now

I’ve been in this market for over two decades, and I’ve seen the same companies consistently win recompetes while others repeatedly lose them. The winners aren’t necessarily smarter or more technical—they just pay attention to five simple things:

1. They never get comfortable. Every year feels like the first year to them. They know someone’s always trying to take their spot, so they act as if it’s true.

2. They actually talk to their customers. Not just status meetings and deliverable reviews. Conversations about changing priorities, objectives, budgets, and where they see things heading.

3. They spread the relationship love around. Your PM can’t be the only person who knows the customer. Get your technical team, subject matter experts, executives, and even your junior people in front of the customer when it makes sense.

4. They ask uncomfortable questions. “What would you change about how we’re doing this?” “Where are we falling short?” “What do you wish we understood better?” Most contractors are terrified to ask these questions. The good ones ask them all the time.

5. They actually do something with what they learn. Listening is great, but if you don’t act on the feedback, you’re worse off than before you asked.

Anatomy of a Win

A VOSB had been on a long-term contract with a federal agency. Their program manager was a rock star—technically excellent but had become comfortable over the years.

One day, a young engineer noticed a subtle frustration during a meeting. The customer was spending a significant amount of time manually generating a weekly status report that was a tedious, non-billable chore.

The engineer brought this insight back to her team. Leadership decided it was worth building a simple, automated dashboard that would instantly generate the report. They weren’t asked to, and it wasn’t a formal proposal or even a “mod”. They presented it as a way to help.

The customer was stunned. The automated report didn’t change the technical outcome of the contract, but it signaled something far more critical: They cared about the customer and were still paying attention.

When the recompete RFP dropped, they were the clear choice.

The Bottom Line

Your contract tenure isn’t a moat—it’s a countdown timer. Every year you hold that contract without actively improving the customer relationship score is another year in which your competitors are building a case for why they deserve it more.

The cure for incumbentitis isn’t better technical performance—it’s better engagement performance and a deeper understanding of customers. The contracts you keep won’t be the ones where you delivered best in the past. They’ll be the ones where you’re most trusted for the future.

So here’s the question that should be driving your strategy: If the recompete RFP were to drop tomorrow, would your customer choose you because they have to, or because they want to?

Your revenue depends on getting that answer right.